Open Journal Systems

A System Dynamics Model for Biodiesel Industry in Indonesia

Ummu Sulaim Arrumaisho, Yos Sunitiyoso

Abstract


Abstract. The biggest demand for energy in Indonesia is oil fuels. To fulfill this demand, Indonesia has to import oil fuels. In order to decrease oil import, Government of Indonesia develop some policies to use biodiesel. Since 2009, biodiesel production in Indonesia has increased every year. To find out what factors and how these factors affect biodiesel industry’s growth in Indonesia, this research was conducted using literature study and system dynamics modeling. In this research, the factors that were evaluated are feedstock, biodiesel price, and government mandatory and regulation. The evaluation was carried out through system dynamics modeling for the next thirty years. The results of the system dynamics modeling simulation show that the factor that most influence the profit and biodiesel capacity construction is the use of advanced technology that can produce biodiesel from low quality and low-cost feedstocks. The second factor is government incentives in the form of a carbon tax that can increase the profit. The next factor is the amount of mandatory mixing of biodiesel in diesel oil. While biodiesel price factor did not significantly affect the profit and biodiesel capacity construction.

Keywords:  Biodiesel, causal loop diagram, industry, stock and flow diagram, system dynamics

Keywords


biodiesel; causal loop diagram; industry; stock and flow diagram; system dynamics

Full Text:

PDF

References


. Pengembangan bioenergi di Indonesia: Peluang dan tantangan kebijakan industri biodiesel.

Abed, K. A., Gad, M. S., El Morsi, A. K., Sayed, M. M., & Elyazeed, S. A. (2019). Effect of biodiesel fuels on diesel engine emissions. Egyptian Journal of Petroleum, 1–6.

Banks, Jerry; Carson II, Nelson, N. (2014). Discrete-event system simulation (5th ed.). Pearson. ISBN 10: 1-292-02437-2.

Bantz, S. G., & Deaton, M. L. (2007). Understanding U.S. biodiesel industry growth using system dynamics modeling. Proceedings of the 2006 IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium, SIEDS’06, 156–161.

Barisa, A., Romagnoli, F., Blumberga, A., & Blumberga, D. (2015). Future biodiesel policy designs and consumption patterns in Latvia: A system dynamics model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 88, 71–82.

Bart, J. C. J., Palmeri, N., & Cavallaro, S. (2010). Biodiesel science and technology. Woodhead Publishing Limited. ISBN 978-1-84569-591-0.

Bautista, S., Espinoza, A., Narvaez, P., Camargo, M., & Morel, L. (2019). A system dynamics approach for sustainability assessment of biodiesel production in Colombia. Baseline simulation. Journal of Cleaner Production, 213, 1–20.

Borshchev, A., & Filippov, A. (2004). From system dynamics and discrete even to practical agent based modeling. The 22nd International Conference of the System Dynamics Society.

Demczuk, A., & Padula, A. D. (2017). Using system dynamics modeling to evaluate the feasibility of ethanol supply chain in Brazil: The role of sugarcane yield, gasoline prices and sales tax rates. Biomass and Bioenergy, 97, 186–211.

Eker, S., & van Daalen, E. (2015). A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty. Energy Policy, 82(1), 178–196.

Espinoza, A., Bautista, S., Narváez, P. C., Alfaro, M., & Camargo, M. (2017). Sustainability assessment to support governmental biodiesel policy in Colombia: A system dynamics model. Journal of Cleaner Production, 141, 1145–1163.

Hidayatno, A., Zagloel, Y. M., & Purwanto, W. W. (2011). System dynamics sustainability model of palm-oil based biodiesel production chain in Indonesia. IJET : International Journal of Engineering & Technology.

Inayati, T., Mori, S., & Nuraeni, S. (2016). System dynamics model and policy scenario analyses on international movements of Indonesian scientists and engineers. The Asian Journal of Technology Management (AJTM), 9(2), 66–79.

Jeffers, R. F., Jacobson, J. J., & Searcy, E. M. (2013). Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets. Energy Policy, 52, 249–263.

Jose, A., Guevara, D. H., Production, E., & Brazil, I. N. (2017). Evaluation of Sustainability of Brazilian Ethanol Production: A model in System Dynamics.

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. (2018). Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of Indonesia 2018.

Kementerian Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral. (2019). Besaran HIP BBN Bulan Juni 2019.

Kementerian Perindustrian. (2018). Analisis Kerja Industri 2018.

Kuo, T. C., Lin, S. H., Tseng, M. L., Chiu, A. S. F., & Hsu, C. W. (2019). Biofuels for vehicles in Taiwan: Using system dynamics modeling to evaluate government subsidy policies. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 145(January), 31–39.

Lidia, M. W., Arai, T., Ishigaki, A., & Yudoko, G. (2012). Applying system dynamics approach to the fast fashion supply chain: case study of an SME in Indonesia. The Asian Journal of Technology Management, 5(1), 42–52.

Liu, X., & Zeng, M. (2017). Renewable energy investment risk evaluation model based on system dynamics. Renewable and sustainable energy Reviews, 73(November 2016), 782–788.

Mofijur, M., Masjuki, H. H., Kalam, M. A., Ashrafur Rahman, S. M., & Mahmudul, H. M. (2015). Energy scenario and biofuel policies and targets in ASEAN countries. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 46, 51–61.

Morecroft, J. D. W. (2015). Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics. Wiley. ISBN 978-1-118-84468-7.

Morgan, J. S., Howick, S., & Belton, V. (2017). A toolkit of designs for mixing Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics. European Journal of Operational Research, 257(3), 907–918.

Mukherjee, I., & Sovacool, B. K. (2014). Palm oil-based biofuels and sustainability in southeast Asia: A review of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 37, 1–12.

Musango, J. K., Brent, A. C., Amigun, B., Pretorius, L., & Müller, H. (2011). Technology sustainability assessment of biodiesel development in South Africa: A system dynamics approach. Energy, 36, 6922–6940.

Musango, J. K., Brent, A. C., Amigun, B., Pretorius, L., & Müller, H. (2012). A system dynamics approach to technology sustainability assessment: The case of biodiesel developments in South Africa. Technovation, 32(11), 639–651.

Mutingi, M., Mbohwa, C., & Kommula, V. P. (2017). System dynamics approaches to energy policy modelling and simulation. Energy Procedia, 141, 532–539.

Papilo, P., Marimin, Hambali, E., & Sitanggang, I. S. (2018). Sustainability index assessment of palm oil-based bioenergy in Indonesia. Journal of Cleaner Production, 196, 808–820.

PPIPE BPPT. (2018). Outlook Energi Indonesia 2018: Energi Berkelanjutan untuk Transportasi Darat. Development (Vol. 134).

Rahman, T., Arkeman, Y., Setyaningsih, D., & Saparita, R. (2017). Indonesian CPO availability analysis to support food and energy security: A system dynamic approach. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 65(1).

Republik Indonesia. (2006). Keputusan Direktur Jenderal Minyak dan Gas Bumi Nomor: 13483K/24/DJM/2006 Tentang Standar dan Mutu (Spesifikasi) Bahan Bakar Nabati (Biofuel) Jenis Biodiesel sebagai Bahan Bakar Lain yang Dipasarkan di Dalam Negeri.

Republik Indonesia. (2006). Peraturan Menteri Enegi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 51 Tahun 2006 Tentang Persyaratan dan Pedoman Izin Usaha Niaga Bahan Bakar Nabati (Biofuel) sebagai Bahan Bakar Lain.

Republik Indonesia. (2014). Keputusan Menteri Ketenagakerjaan Nomor 393 Tahun 2014 Tentang Penetapan Standar Kompetensi Kerja Nasional Indonesia Kategori Industri Pengolahan Golongan Pokok Industri Bahan Kimia dan Barang dari Bahan Kimia Bidang Industri Biodiesel.

Republik Indonesia. (2014). Peraturan Pemerintah Republik Indonesia Nomor 79 Tahun 2014 Tentang Kebijakan Energi Nasional. Republik Indonesia.

Republik Indonesia. (2015). Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 12 Tahun 2015 Tentang Perubahan Ketiga atas Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 32 Tahun 2008.

Republik Indonesia. (2016). Undang-undang Nomor 16 Tahun 2016 Tentang Pengesahan Paris Agreement to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (Persetujuan Paris atas Konvensi Kerangka Kerja Perserikatan Bangsa-bangsa Mengenai Perubahan Iklim.

Republik Indonesia. (2018). Keputusan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 2018K/10/MEM/2018 Tentang Pengadaan Bahan Bakar Nabati Jenis Biodiesel untuk Pencampuran Jenis Bahan Bakar Minyak Periode Januari - Desember 2019.

Republik Indonesia. (2018). Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 41 Tahun 2018.

Republik Indonesia. (2018). Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 45 Tahun 2018 Tentang Perubahan atas Peraturan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 41 Tahun 2018 Tentang Penyediaan dan Pemanfaatan Bahan Bakar Nabati Jenis Biodiesel dalam Kerangka Pembiayaan.

Republik Indonesia. (2018). Peraturan Presiden Republik Inoonesia Nomor 66 Tahun 2018 Tentang Perubahan Kedua Atas Peraturan Presiden Nomor 61 Tahun 2015 Tentang Penghimpunan dan Penggunaan Dana Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit.

Republik Indonesia. (2019). Keputusan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 91K/12/DJE/2019 Tentang Perubahan atas Keputusan Menteri Energi dan Sumber Daya Mineral Nomor 350K/12/DJE/2018 Tentang Harga Indeks Pasar Bahan Bakar Nabati Jenis Biodiesel yang Dicampurkan ke dalam Bahan Bakar.

Sanches-Pereira, A., & Gómez, M. F. (2015). The dynamics of the Swedish biofuel system toward a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production, 96, 452–466.

Saravanan, A. P., Mathimani, T., Deviram, G., Rajendran, K., & Pugazhendhi, A. (2018). Biofuel policy in India: A review of policy barriers in sustainable marketing of biofuel. Journal of Cleaner Production, 193, 734–747.

Shafiei, E., Davidsdottir, B., Leaver, J., Stefansson, H., & Asgeirsson, E. I. (2015). Simulation of alternative fuel markets using integrated system dynamics model of energy system. Procedia Computer Science, 51(1), 513–521.

Shafiei, E., Davidsdottir, B., Leaver, J., Stefansson, H., Asgeirsson, E. I., & Keith, D. R. (2016). Analysis of supply-push strategies governing the transition to biofuel vehicles in a market-oriented renewable energy system. Energy, 94, 409–421.

Solomon, B. D., Banerjee, A., Acevedo, A., Halvorsen, K. E., & Eastmond, A. (2014). Policies for the Sustainable Development of Biofuels in the Pan American Region: A Review and Synthesis of Five Countries. Environmental Management, 56(6), 1276–1294.

Sterman, J. D. (2000). Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World. McGraw-Hill. ISBN 0-07-231135-5.

Wasesa, M., Nijdam, P., Muhammad, I. H., & Van Heck, E. (2012). Improving the pre-notification protocol of the containers pick-up procedure: An agent-based approach. ICAART 2012 - Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Agents and Artificial Intelligence, 2, 190–196.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12695/ajtm.2019.12.2.6

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.