Dynamics Of MBG Partnership Formation in Complex Adaptive Systems: An Agent-Based Modeling Approach to Partnership Inequality in Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract—The Free Nutritious Meals Program (MBG) in Indonesia has experienced rapid expansion, yet significant regional disparities persist in the distribution of its business partnerships. This study investigates the dynamics of MBG partnership formation and inequality through a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) perspective. A hybrid Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) framework is developed, integrating mechanisms of Resource Dependence, Social Capital, Cumulative Advantage, and Relative Deprivation theories to simulate interactions among business actors, suppliers, and local institutions. The model evaluates four distinct regional scenarios: an equal access ecosystem (Jakarta), geographic inequality (Highland Papua), network dominance (Central Kalimantan), and social participation dynamics (West Sumatra). The simulation results demonstrate that equal national policies do not generate equal partnership opportunities; regions with favorable environmental and network conditions achieved 100% market capacity utilization, whereas structurally constrained regions utilized only 2.5% to 18.6% of their available capacity. The study identifies critical emergent outcomes driving this disparity, including partnership inequality traps, geographic exclusion, network clustering, adaptive survival gaps, and institutional dependence. The findings suggest that mitigating partnership inequality requires moving beyond uniform policy implementation toward region-specific interventions focused on improving information accessibility, reducing logistical barriers, and strengthening supplier networks. This study advances the literature by integrating Resource Dependence, Social Capital, Cumulative Advantage, and Relative Deprivation theories within a hybrid Agent-Based Modeling framework grounded in Complex Adaptive Systems, offering a novel computational approach for explaining partnership inequality and supporting the design of more adaptive and region-sensitive public partnership policies.

 Keywords—Agent-Based Modeling, Complex Adaptive Systems, Free Nutritious Meals Program, Partnership Inequality, Regional Disparities.