The Impact of Trump's Tariff Policies on the Economic Stability and Trade Flows of BRICS+: A Comparative Analysis.

Abstract

Abstract - This study analyzes the stock market reactions of BRICS+ countries to President Donald Trump’s announcement of a tariff policy delay on April 9, 2025. Using an event study approach in a 10-day window (D-5 and D+5 from the event), the study evaluates the abnormal returns on the stock indices of eight BRICS+ countries using the Wilcoxon test, since the data are not normally distributed. The results show that only Russia on D+2 and India on D+3 experienced significant changes after the announcement. The impact in Russia was due to its high dependence on energy exports, while India was affected through pressure on the diamond industry due to tariff uncertainty. This reflects a semi-strong form of inefficiency in both markets. In contrast, the stock markets of Brazil, China, South Africa, Egypt, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia did not show significant reactions, indicating the presence of structural factors that affect the level of efficiency of each market. These findings confirm that global trade policies have an asymmetrical impact on emerging markets.

Keywords - BRICS+, tariff delay, market efficiency, event study, abnormal Return