Indonesia’s Power Sector Scenarios To 2060:Modeling Geothermal, Solar, And Wind Expansion Under Energy Transition Policies

Authors

  • Evan M. Fathurrahman Electrical Engineering of Department, Institut Teknologi PLN, Jakarta,
  • I Made Indradjaja Marcus Brunner Electrical Engineering of Department, Institut Teknologi PLN, Jakarta,
  • I Made Indradjaja Marcus Brunner Electrical Engineering of Department, Institut Teknologi PLN, Jakarta

Abstract

Abstract - Indonesia’s target to achieve Net Zero Emissions (NZE) by 2060 places the energy sector at the center of decarbonization efforts. Despite vast renewable potential, the current energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels, and the transition faces technical and policy barriers. This study applies the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to assess four power generation scenarios from 2025 to 2060: Business as Usual (BAU), Geothermal (GEO), Solar & Wind (SAW), and Progressive (PRO). Each scenario evaluates electricity output, installed capacity, and renewable energy share. Results indicate that all scenarios meet the projected demand of 1,425.3 TWh by 2060. The GEO scenario achieves the highest output (1,527.4 TWh), while SAW faces intermittency challenges. The PRO scenario provides the most balanced pathway, with an 83.41% renewable share and 1,432.6 TWh output. Findings indicate that combining geothermal as a stable baseload with integrated solar and wind, supported by storage and smart grids, is key to a sustainable and reliable transition. By integrating the latest national energy plans and extending projections to 2060, this study offers strategic insights for long-term policy formulation toward NZE.

Keywords - Energy transition; Geothermal; Solar; Wind; LEAP; Energy mix; NZE 2060

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Submitted

2025-09-09

Published

2025-09-10

Conference Proceedings Volume

Proceedings of The 9th International Conference on Management in Emerging Markets (ICMEM) SBM ITB

Section

Articles