Optimizing The Transition: Strategic Prioritization for Early Retirement of Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPP) In Java-Madura-Bali

Abstract

Abstract – The Paris Agreement has driven global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with early retirement of Coal-Fired Power Plants (CFPP) identified as a key strategy. As one of the largest CFPP users, particularly in the Java, Madura, and Bali (JAMALI) regions, Indonesia has developed an energy transition roadmap to reach Net Zero Emissions (NZE), incorporating early CFPP retirement. This research aims to determine the priority order of CFPP to be retired in the JAMALI electricity systems based on Indonesia’s roadmap to NZE through a combination of MCDM (Multi-Criteria Decision Making) methods: Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The criteria used in this study were derived from literature reviews and expert Focus Group Discussions (FGDs). The weights of each criterion were obtained by averaging the questionnaire responses using the Weighted Geometric Mean Method (WGMM), and the results were simulated using the Super Decisions Software. The TOPSIS approach was then utilized to formulate the ranking. The following CFPPs were ranked in order of early retirement by the ANP-TOPSIS combination: CFPP A, E, D, F, C, and B. Power flow simulation and expert assessment indicate that CFPP E is considered viable for implementation by 2033.

Keywords - Coal-Fired Power Plant (CFPP), Early Retirement, MCDM, ANP, TOPSIS