Oil Production Curtailment Scenario Selection Using Multicriteria Decision-making Analysis

Abstract

Covid-19 restrict human mobility. With two-thirds of oil consumption accounted by transportation, global oil consumption declines from 100 to 80 million barrels per day. This impacted oil surplus level in 2020 increased three times compare in 2018. PT. CPI might be forced to curtail its production rate. Scope of this research is to develop optimum curtailment scenario. Focus Group Discussion (FGD) was conducted to develop problem tree analysis. It is concluded that improper curtailment become core problem that have safety, compliance, and economic consequences. Root cause of problem related with guideline unavailability to shutdown wells and facility. Converting to objective tree analysis, guideline for shutdown wells and facility during curtailment will be developed. This research combines Value Focused Thinking (VFT) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). VFT is used to generate curtailment alternatives while AHP to select the best alternative. There are 6 attributes that guides selection: Avoid oil spill, injury, start-up problem, maintain profitability, minimize loss production opportunity, and maintain steam backbone. From 4 scenario generated VFT, AHP determines that scenario 2 has the highest score. Curtailment scenario 2 involves running min. capacity in facilities, shutdown low risk producer wells, shutdown mature injector wells. PT CPI accepted this recommendation and will develop executable Standard Operating Procedure for Scenario 2.

Keyword: Oil Surplus, Curtailment, Shutdown Scenario,VFT, AHP