Developing Post COVID-19 Policy Recommendation Using Scenario Planning for Road-Based Public Transportation Company in Indonesia

Abstract

COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia impacting on low ridership that will be risking the future availability of public transportation. This risk has been considered by The Indonesian Ministry of Transportation that leads to the research question regarding the trend and uncertainties that affecting the future possibilities and impacting the anticipated policy to overcome the scenario that might occur in the future. The method used for this research is scenario planning methodology that works by framing the future into some plausible scenario that might happen. Each scenario then will be the basis for policy implementation in supporting the business sustainability of road-based public transportation companies in Indonesia. The data gathering method in this research is using focus group discussion and brainstorming with several stakeholders in road-based public transportation sectors. The results of this paper consisting of three scenarios which are: Highway, Busway, and Gridlock. Each scenario represents recovery condition, consolidation condition, and contraction condition on road-based public transportation sectors in Indonesia. With the defined scenario, several policy recommendations will be suitable to face the condition of the road-based public transportation sectors.

Keyword:Business Sustainability, Policy Making, Public Transportation, Scenario Planning