Sensing the Future of Lifestyle Industry in Indonesia Using Scenario Planning

Abstract

Lifestyle industry in Indonesia has been growing rapidly in the recent years, especially in urban cities, such as Jakarta, Bandung, or Surabaya. This industry has a linear growth from 2010 and has made Indonesia the top three countries with biggest creative economy contribution to the country GDP in 2019, after South Korea and USA. However, in 2020, its growth stalled because of the Covid-19 pandemic that crippled the global economy, including Indonesia. After a year of experiencing the turbulences, uncertainty, novel, and ambiguous condition posed by the pandemic, the businesses within this industry need to have a better preparation and see what might lies ahead. The purpose of this research is to identify the plausible future for the lifestyle industry in Indonesia in the next five years and the implications to the businesses within this industry. The research utilizes TAIDA scenario planning framework. Through interview with stakeholders within the industry, several driving forces are identified, and two critical uncertainties are determined, which are the global economy recovery post-pandemic and the shift of people’s lifestyle towards environment. Based on these two critical uncertainties, four different future scenarios are generated. Each scenario is assigned with its narratives, implications and options, and early warning signals. At the end of the research, strategy recommendations are given for the company for sustainable growth in all the future scenarios.

Keywords: scenario planning, critical uncertainties, future sensing, lifestyle industry, creative economy, TAIDA