Decision Analysis in Generating Robust and Systematic Gas Asset Development Strategy in Block X Subsequent to the End of PSC Using AHP and SMART

Abstract

Development strategy along with reservoir management is a central part of a company’s production strategy and crucially needed to warrant the continuous withdrawal of hydrocarbons until its estimated ultimate recovery. Gas production has been generating high value for the XCO. However, gas production shows declining trend with >30% decline-rate. Moreover, currently there’s no solid gas development plan, particularly post PSC termination to improve gas production. In-depth assessment as part of the research indicates several root causes with key problem is the absence of gas development strategy. The solution proposed in the research is the formulation of robust and systematic gas development strategy through MCDM by utilizing AHP to identify development alternative to recover the gas remaining reserves and applying SMART to define high priority tranche as focus development target area. The outcome of the analysis generates recommendations to pursue with Convert-to-Gas to add take- point on gas field to improve gas production performance where the tranche(s) prioritization is recommended to be focused on tranche C+D (Alternative 6). Combination of AHP and SMART is proven to be the most applicable and proper approach to tackle two facets of decision-making process to be able to establish a robust and systematic gas development strategy.

Keywords: multi criteria decision analysis, analytic hierarchy process, AHP, simple multi attribute rating technique, SMART, gas production, development strategy, oil and gas