Demand Forecasting and Aggregate Planning Strategy at PT Labitta Benderang Usaha

Abstract

Abstract. PT Labitta Benderang Usaha is a footwear company in Indonesia. On one of the brands, Lamonty, PT LBU often experiences the mismatch between production and demand because the company only uses naive approach to their forecasting method. To deal with high predicted demand, PT LBU uses overtime as their aggregate planning strategy. But the company still experience production shortages. However, the company is required to increase efficiency in production sector. So, the most optimal demand forecasting method and aggregate planning strategy are needed. Forecasting method used is time-series forecasting method that using Simple Moving Average, Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt's model, and Winter's model. The error of these methods will be compared with 3 parameters; Mean Squared Error, Mean Absolute Deviation, and Mean Absolute Percentage Error. From the error evaluation, the Winter’s Model has the smallest MAD, MSE, MAPE which is 105.33, 21813.9, and 4.72%. This result can be used to calculate the aggregate planning strategy. There are 4 strategies that were practiced, which are company strategy, chase strategy, level strategy, and linear programming. Linear programming strategy has the smallest production cost which is IDR 463,092,586. This strategy can minimize the cost from company strategy up to IDR 169,147,414.

Keywords: footwear industry; demand forecasting; aggregate planning; production cost