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Forecasting Food Commodities Prices Fluctuation with Islamic Calendar Effect : The Case of Bandung

Filbert Filbert, Asep Darmansyah


Abstract. Food service industry in Indonesia has been growing over the years. Indonesia is the largest market of food service industry in the whole ASEAN region. One of the major risks for food service businesses is food commodities prices fluctuation. It reduces profitability and even threatens survivability. To mitigate that risk, an accurate forecast result can be used to anticipate price fluctuation. This research analyses the Islamic calendar effect towards food commodities prices fluctuation in Bandung, the capital city of West Java, Indonesia. Islamic holidays and holy Islamic months ensure a seasonal demand increase for food due to culture and tradition. This research forecast food commodities prices by using Facebook Prophet model. This research develops forecast models that apply Islamic seasonality. The food commodities prices that are forecasted are rice, chicken, white shallot, small chili, and cooking oil. This research generate Forecast result is pretty accurate. Therefore, the forecast result can be used for food service business in Bandung better anticipate food commodities prices fluctuation.

Keywords: Food Service Businesses; Food Commodities Prices; Forecast; Islamic Calendar Effect


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